More, there are good reasons to think that the level of economic sanctions leveled at Russia after the invasion of Ukraine would be at least matched by nations opposed to China’s use of force against Taiwan. There is no evidence and scant theory to suggest that the United States armed forces would not become directly involved in any reasonable scenario (e.g., excluding direct military provocation by Taiwan). Bearing in mind that crossing the Taiwan Strait would not be quick and easy, as was the case of the D-Day Normandy landings, there is little to suggest that the PLA would be able to land and maintain for any length of time a significantly powerful force. Taiwan’s forces don’t have quite that much experience, but for the last 50 years they have been wholly focused on defense.Ĭhina last conducted an opposed amphibious landing in April 1949, when seizing Hainan Island from the Nationalists. The last Chinese pilot to fire a shot in anger dropped bombs on South Vietnamese forces on the Parcel Islands, in 1974. The PLAN (navy) and PLAAF (air force) played no role in that conflict, nor in the 1969 border skirmishes with the Soviet Union, nor in the 1962 mini-war with India. Today, the senior-most military officers include a small handful who comprise China’s only serving soldiers to have seen actual combat. That conflict started in February 1979, but carried on for about a decade of border fighting. The PLA last saw real combat in the late 1980s, at the tail end of the Sino-Vietnam War. For more discussion of the China-Taiwan balance, see this post, recounting the DoD (unclassified) assessment.ġ32 thoughts on “ Assessing the Cross-Taiwan-Straits Military Balance” Harpoon anti-ship missiles are then buttressing the increase in Patriot sales to Taiwan announced at the end of last year. Subduing the 23 million people there and negotiating mountainous terrain would be extremely difficult, he said, and drew parallels to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - an ongoing conflict that has left hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians dead or wounded. Milley pointed out that the Chinese military hasn’t seen combat since the 1970s and would be playing a “very, very dangerous game” if it attacks Taiwan. military is prepared should the island be invaded. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that the Pentagon is working to make sure that Taipei can defend itself and that the U.S. The classified documents addressing a potential conflict suggest China’s air force would have a much better shot at establishing early control of the skies - a strategy that Taipei itself believes will underpin an attack - than Russia did in Ukraine. The assessments state that Taiwan officials doubt their air defenses can “accurately detect missile launches,” that barely more than half of Taiwan’s aircraft are fully mission capable and that moving the jets to shelters would take at least a week - a huge problem if China launched missiles before Taiwan had a chance to disperse those planes. spy agencies’ ability to detect a pending invasion, according to leaked Pentagon assessments that contain troubling details about the self-governed island’s ability to fend off war. Taiwan is unlikely to thwart Chinese military air superiority in a cross-strait conflict, while tactics such as China’s use of civilian ships for military purposes have eroded U.S. A leaked document recounted in WaPo assesses the current military situation. But clearly more is going to be necessary. 400 Harpoon missiles to Taiwan is a good development.
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